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22 January 15:30-17:00 CET

Tipping Points Across Scales: Complexity in Social and Ecological Systems

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and the WCRP's Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for a webinar on termporan and spatial scales in tipping processes . 

This webinar will explore tipping points in complex systems, focusing on their spatial and temporal scales. It will feature two talks that examine how tipping points emerge and evolve in both social and ecological contexts.

The first talk talk will challenge traditional views on spatial self-organization in ecosystems, questioning the idea that it signals proximity to a critical transition between alternative ecosystem states, like vegetated vs. desert landscapes. Recent research suggests spatial self-organization could, in fact, enhance resilience and help ecosystems avoid tipping points. The speaker will present a revised theoretical framework and discuss new findings demonstrating that the response of self-organized ecosystems to environmental changes depends on the specific types of interactions responsible for pattern formation.

In the second talk we'll dive into the complexities of human collective behavior, where new models will be presented to anticipate both intended and unintended consequences of interventions in social systems. The role of heterogeneity in triggering and extending tipping points in collective behavior will be explored, offering a deeper understanding of how social dynamics evolve and shift.

This session will shed light on the variability in how ecological and social systems respond to change, shedding light on  resilience, tipping points, and the potential for stability in an uncertain world.

Presentations

Moderated by Ulrike Feudel (Oldenburg University)

The recording will be provided below:

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Speakers

Ricardo Martinez-Garcia
Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf

Ricardo Martinez-Garcia is an interdisciplinary researcher working at the intersection of biology, mathematics, physics, environmental science, and computer science. His research focuses on understanding the patterns and behaviors of complex living systems across scales, from microbial communities to ecosystems. He studies how interactions among individuals (cells, animals, plants) with each other and the environment lead to higher levels of organization and cascading effects on populations and ecosystems.

Ricardo combines theoretical models with empirical data to make predictions, often collaborating with experimentalists. His work explores self-organized emergent patterns in ecology, developing theory using methods from statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics, while also investigating natural systems to test these principles across different scales.

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Vítor V. Vasconcelos
University of Amsterdam

Vítor Vasconcelos is an Assistant Professor at the University of Amsterdam, where he works at the Computational Science Lab at the Informatics Institute. His research focuses on developing models of human collective behavior to better understand and address the consequences of interventions in complex social systems. Through mathematical and computational methods, along with experiments and observations, he explores interconnected systems involving humans, resources, and governance to tackle global challenges like climate change and misinformation.

Vítor co-leads the POLDER initiative at the Institute for Advanced Study and coordinates the ‘Complex Systems and Policy’ Master’s program at the Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies. He previously held positions as a Visiting Research Scholar at Princeton University’s Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, and the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies, after completing his PhD in Sciences at the University of Minho in 2017.

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Ulrike Feudel
Oldenburg University

Ulrike Feudel is a professor of Theoretical Physics and Complex Systems at the Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg, Germany, where she has worked since 2000. She studied Physics at Humboldt-University Berlin, earning her PhD in 1986, and completed her Habilitation at the University of Potsdam in 1996. Her research focuses on nonlinear dynamics, chaos theory, and their applications to climate science, theoretical ecology, and neuroscience.

Feudel has held research positions at the University of Maryland, University of California at Santa Barbara, and Eötvös Loránd University in Budapest. She has published over 180 peer-reviewed papers, a book, and seven book chapters. Her achievements have been recognized with awards such as the Lewis Fry Richardson Medal (2022) and a Fellowship from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (2015).

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All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

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Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)is an international research institute that advances systems analysis and applies its research methods to identify policy solutions to reduce human footprints, enhance the resilience of natural and socioeconomic systems, and help achieve the sustainable development goals.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future. A member of the Leibniz Association, the institute is based in Potsdam, Brandenburg and connected with the global scientific community. Drawing on excellent research, PIK provides relevant scientific advice for policy decision-making. The institute’s international staff of about 400 is led by a committed interdisciplinary team of Directors.

University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute (GSI) is thought-leading in understanding global changes, solving global challenges and helping create a flourishing future world together, through transformative research, education and impact. GSI's aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. GSI's aim to be a ‘go to’ place for global change researchers from around the world, bringing them together with industry, policymakers, students and other stakeholders to tackle shared problems, and acting as a catalyst that enables translation of this research into applications that deliver tangible and sustainable social and ecological benefit.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.